As part of Bridge Ratings' on-going study of audience attrition of traditional radio and subscriber and user growth of alternative digital media, included here is an update to our findings first published in March of 2005 and then again in December of 2005..
While initial estimates showed solid growth for satellite radio during 2005, data updated through July 2006 indicates a continued positive but slowing growth pattern for the foreseeable future. Presently our guidance indicates XM will reach 8.2 million in subscribers by year end - up 37% over the company's 2005 year-end number.
Meanwhile, Sirius satellite radio has made significant strides since fall of 2005 now garnering between 58% and 62% of the share of new satellite subscriptions. We are now projecting Sirius to climb to over 6.5 million subscribers by the close of 2006 for a total sector subscriber count of 14.7 million. However, subscriber projections for Q3 guidance and consumer interviews will show marked slowing compared to initial estimates before the satcasters' holiday season 2006 push.
We are also projecting under current consumer brand awareness, product preference and retail and auto sales, Siirus will surpass XM subscriber counts by 2009.
We revise our projections on a quarterly basis:
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2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
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| XM |
4.30 |
6.00 |
8.20 |
10.66 |
12.26 |
14.10 |
18.47 |
22.53 |
| Sirius |
2.00 |
3.10 |
6.55 |
9.17 |
12.53 |
15.03 |
21.34 |
27.75 |
| Internet Radio |
56.70 |
72.01 |
91.45 |
116.14 |
147.50 |
187.33 |
196.69 |
226.20 |
| Wireless Internet |
5.67 |
10.10 |
19.19 |
34.54 |
62.18 |
111.92 |
125.35 |
144.15 |
| Mobile phone Streaming |
0.00 |
1.475 |
3.66 |
6.97 |
11.81 |
20.61 |
23.70 |
27.26 |
| HD Radio (Terrestrial) |
0.100
|
0.56 |
1.05 |
2.00 |
4.21 |
8.84 |
15.99 |
25.91 |
| Terrestrial Radio Cume |
283.10 |
279.65 |
282.84 |
279.97 |
278.59 |
262.57 |
248.33 |
235.03 |
| Podcasting |
1.0 |
1.24 |
2.29 |
2.66 |
3.76 |
4.21 |
7.20 |
8.71 |
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| *Weekly Persons Using Medium in millions |
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Estimates represent numbers on 1/01 of year indicated.
Estimates for Internet radio represent monthly users.
The key here is this: Internet radio is quickly becoming the preferred medium over satellite radio and, traditional radio among 15-30 year old early adopters. Tthe lackluster projected growth of High Definition terrestrial radio (HD) suggests by current research that unless additional interactive technology is added and programming and technical problems improve, HD's free channels will do little to fend off other digital audio alternatives to terrestrial radio. We still believe that terrestrial radio will have significant market penetration well into the future with at least 80% of the U.S. population tuning in at least once a week by 2020. Difficult to project with confidence at this time is terrestrial radio's time-spent-listening fifteen years hence.
According to this updated data, the entire spectrum of digital audio alternatives, and especially Internet radio and its wireless distribution continue to represent the biggest challenge to traditional radio.
Sample size: 2900 persons 18+ Survey dates: 3/03/06 - 7/31/06
Markets included: Los Angeles, Portland OR, Dallas, Phoenix, New York, Boston, Washington DC, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, Burlington VT, Denver.
Methodology: Random digit phone dialing, mall intercepts
Population estimates courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau
